Saturday, October 02, 2010

Marketwatch: US on brink of 2nd Revolution

Audi automobile with the license plate "A...

Image via Wikipedia

PAUL B. FARRELL

Paul B. Farrell

Sept. 28, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EDT

America on the brink of a Second Revolution

Commentary: 2010 elections guarantee gridlock, anti-capitalist class war

By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- "What's distinctive about the Tea Party is its anarchist streak -- its antagonism toward any authority, its belligerent self-expression, and its lack of any coherent program or alternative to the policies it condemns," warns Jacob Weisberg in Newsweek. But why not three cheers for the Tea Party Express?

Admit it, something historic is brewing. And yes, it's good for America, even the anarchy. Revolution is renewal. Tea-baggers want to take on both parties, "restore honor" and "take back the country." Bring it on, the feeling's mutual.OK, maybe most Americans just silently mimic the words, "we're mad as hell, won't take it any more." But watch out: After November the campaign's shrill rhetoric explodes into action.

Tea-baggers are kicking the revolution into high gear. Debt is sinking America. Both parties are to blame. So vote out incumbents. Spare no one. We need new leadership, another Reagan or Truman. Congress better get the message: Cut that budget, or they'll dump the rest of you in the coming Great Purge of 2012.

Unfortunately they're tone deaf. Congress cannot see past the election. All that changes in November.

So thanks Tea Party, Vegas odds must favor a Second American Revolution. Actually, the revolution is already roaring, hot, it's about time. The GOP and the Dems had more than a decade. But America's worse off. We need a real revolution to restore sanity ... or we can kiss democracy and capitalism good-bye, permanently.

Warning: Another revolution will cost investors 20% more losses

Yes, big warning, the Second American Revolution will extract painful austerity, not the "happy days are here again" future touted by tea-baggers. For years it'll be impossible for most of America's 95 million investors to develop a successful investment or logical retirement strategy.

Why? Political chaos will translate into extreme volatility and a highly unpredictable stock market. Result: Wall Street will lose another 20% of the value of your retirement portfolio in the next decade, just as Wall Street did the last decade. So if you think you're "mad as hell" now, "you ain't seen nuthin' yet!"

Here's the timeline:

Stage 1: The Dems just put the nail in their coffin by confirming they are wimps, refusing to force the GOP to filibuster the Bush tax cuts for America's richest.

Stage 2: The GOP takes over the House, expanding its war to destroy Obama with its new policy of "complete gridlock," even "shutting down government."

Stage 3: Obama goes lame-duck.

Stage 4: The GOP wins back the White House and Senate in 2012. Health care returns to insurers. Free market financial deregulation returns.

Stage 5: Under the new president, Wall Street's insatiable greed triggers the catastrophic third meltdown of the 21st century Shiller predicted, with defaults on dollar-denominated debt.

Stage 6: The Second American Revolution explodes into a brutal full-scale class war rebelling against the out-of-touch, out-of-control greedy conspiracy-of-the-rich now running America.

Stage 7: Domestic class warfare is compounded by Pentagon's prediction that by 2020 "an ancient pattern of desperate, all-out wars over food, water, and energy supplies would emerge" worldwide and "warfare is defining human life."

What's behind our 2010-2020 countdown? It became obvious after reading the brilliant but bleak "Decadence of Election 2010" report by Prof. Peter Morici, former chief economist at the International Trade Commission. He sees no hope from America's political parties, just a dark scenario ahead.

Here are the 10 points we see in his message:

1. Expect nothing positive from Dems, the GOP or Tea Party

Yes, we're all "justifiably ticked off." But "Democrats, Republicans, and yes the Tea Party offer little that is encouraging." Earlier Morici warned: "Democratic capitalism is in eclipse. ... Politicians have deceived voters," and are "suffering from delusions of grandeur, self deception and good old-fashioned abuse."

2. Democracy has become too-big-to-govern ... by anyone

"The current economic quagmire is a bipartisan creation." Bush failures led to a "Great Recession ... reckless Wall Street pay and fraud, a breakdown in sound lending standards by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac ... Countrywide, and a huge trade deficit with China and on oil" leaving "Beijing and Middle East royals with trillions of U.S. dollars that they invested foolishly" in bonds "financing the housing and commercial real estate bubbles."

3. Clinton, Bush, Obama policies all feeding revolutionary flames

Even before Bush, "all was set in motion by bank deregulation engineered by Clinton ... Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers ... Clinton's deal to admit China into the World Trade Organization" handed "China free access to U.S. markets" while blocking exports. Earlier Dems blocked "domestic oil and gas development" and froze "auto mileage standards." Obama "finally imposed higher mileage requirements," but after pushing offshore drilling, he "punished the entire petroleum industry" for the BP disaster.

4. Bush's biggest mistake: Goldman CEO Hank Paulson

Morici admits: If Bush is "culpable for anything, it was to not see the gathering storm on Wall Street." Worse, his Treasury picks were disasters: [John] Snow was clueless, Paulson devious. He conned a clueless Congress into bailout trillions, "believing banks could borrow at 3% and lend at 5 and pay MBAs three years out of school five-million-dollar bonuses to create mortgage backed securities." Greed drove the Bush Treasury.

5. All partisan political leaders are destined to sabotage America

One thing is clear to Morici: Not only were America's leaders a "bunch of second-rate incompetents" on both the Clinton and Bush teams, "Obama's ratcheting up government spending and taxes won't fix what's broke, and neither will the GOP prescription of tax cuts and deregulation." Get it? Democracy is in a classic double-bind, no-win scenario.

6. America's democratic capitalism trapped in systemic failure

Morici simply dismisses "Obama's two signature initiatives -- health-care reform and financial services reregulation." They "simply don't work." Why? Politicians "failed to address the root problem, Americans pay 50% more for doctors, hospitals and drugs, than subscribers to national health plans in Germany, France and other decadent socialist European countries." Yet, insurers hate reform, will self-destruct America first.

7. Wall Street's insatiable greed is a virus that never sleeps

Wall Street banks are "back to their old tricks," warns Morici, "hustling municipal governments into the kind of quick-fix budget schemes, like selling parking meters and airport fees." Why? Wall Street's "hustling shoddy corporate bonds that lack adequate collateral and may never be repaid" to justify their absurd mega-bonuses. And they'll keep doing it till the revolution creates a new non-capitalist banking system.

8. New political leaders offer no hope -- Wall Street rules America

GOP's next leaders will fail: "Cutting taxes and mindless deregulation are not the answer." We need the revenue. They have no real plan to trim "$1 trillion from federal spending ... few believe deregulation will fix health care or Wall Street." The GOP has no "effective government solutions to health care, Wall Street, fixing trade with China, and dependence on foreign oil." And the Tea Party "only offers a purer form of failed Republicanism. Tax and spend less, and turn the country over to the robber barons."

9. Praying for a messiah, we're sleepwalking till the revolution

Morici's solution: America "needs a prophet, another Harry Truman or Ronald Reagan." But we'll never get one, until a catastrophe hits. Wall Street's so greedy, so corrupt, so untouchable, so much in control, they will bankroll and control all future "prophets."

10. The Second American Revolution coming

Yes, extreme austerity: "Americans must accept fewer government-paid benefits -- for the rich, the poor and those in between -- and must acknowledge the market works best most of the time, but it is not working in health care, banking, China, and oil." Huh? Sounds like classic economist's double-speak: "The market works most of the time" ... except the market doesn't work at all in the four biggest economic sectors? Fuzzy thinking?

Morici warns, we need "new approaches to regulating, yes regulating, what the medical industry charges, bankers pay themselves, what Americans tolerate and buy" and "guiding big oil and car companies to sustainable solutions."

Holy cow, he suddenly sounds more like a liberal politician than conservative economist. Yes, he's reflecting the total chaos coming on the short road to the Second American Revolution.

In the end, however, you have to admit the good professor does make a lot of sense: "Sounds radical but running the world has never been a choice between statism and anarchy," says Morici.

Choice? Unfortunately, he offers a false choice: Running America effectively means accepting "that the private sector is not the enemy and government is not evil, but neither can serve the other, and us, if value is not seen in each."

Laudable, but impossible because once the GOP Tea Party of No-No is back in power, compromising is not on their agenda, "gridlock" is. So anarchy is the only choice -- they will never, never work with Democrats ... until forced by the Second America Revolution when the middle class finally rises up and overthrows the greedy wealth conspiracy of Wall Street, Washington, CEOs and the Forbes 400.

Till then, anarchy rules as the conspiracy keeps looting Treasury, stealing from taxpayers, conning us all.

Enhanced by Zemanta

1 comment:

LL said...

The article is a black or white, this or that, 1 or 0 expression and prediction.

The Tea Party isn't monolithic. It's not a party but one of those rare but significant spontaneous risings of people where there is no leader but a common feeling that translates into political action.

I don't think that the US is past the tipping point. We can get there, but we're not there. The American government has survived because of compromise. The only time in our history when people failed to compromise, there was a civil war.

Bush's hubris and small vision led to a radical shift in government that is unsustainable and the Tea Party, such as it is, however you define it, seems to be the counterbalance to the ObamaNation. How that translates into political action in real terms remains to be seen.