US Army War College:neither the White House nor Congress would support aid to an Egyptian regime controlled by Brotherhood

Actually I believe that the White House WOULD support continued aid to Egypt to continue ‘influence’ through ‘dialog’. After all a complete break in *this level of cooperation with Egypt would be regarded as a major american loss and setback, which is impossible under the dialectic of the left.

Bill Gertz:

WASHINGTON — The United States envisions the election of the Muslim Brotherhood as a worst-case scenario that would end military cooperation with Egypt, a report said.

The report by the U.S. Army War College asserted that neither the White House nor Congress would support the continuation of the $1.3 billion inannual defense aid to an Egyptian regime controlled by either the Brotherhood or the military.The study by the college’s Strategic Studies Institute was completed before the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak in February and dismissed the prospect of the rise of the Brotherhood, termed a worst-case scenario.

“This scenario would be the most alarming for U.S.-Egyptian strategic relations because a Brotherhood-dominated regime would likely scuttle the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, aid Hamas, and lessen, if not end, military ties with the United States,” the report, titled “Presidential Succession Scenarios In Egypt And Their Impact On U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relations,” said. “Although there may be more moderate elements of the Brotherhood who would want to take a measured approach to these issues, this scenario envisions hard line elements of the organization taking over.”

Authored by Gregory Aftandilian, a former congressional adviser on foreign policy, the report, dated September 2011, warned that a Brotherhood takeover of Egypt would end military cooperation with the United States. Aftandilian, who also worked as a State Department adviser on the Middle East, said a Brotherhood government in Egypt would end U.S. Navy rights to cross the Suez Canal and flights over the Arab League state.

“The United States military would likely lose its overflight and transit rights through the Suez Canal, and joint military exercises would end,” the report said. “In addition, cooperation on anti-terrorism would end because the Brotherhood would not want to be seen aiding the U.S. fight against Islamists, even though the Brotherhood would likely remain opposed to Al Qaida.”

The report said any Brotherhood government would not harm the Egyptian military, meant to confront Israel in any future war. Aftandilian said the emergence of an Islamist government would lead to a decision by Congress to sever military aid to Cairo. The U.S. aid was said to comprise up to 80 percent of Egypt’s military procurement budget.

“Some of the remaining elements of the Egyptian military, even those with Islamist sympathies, would be wary of ending the U.S. military assistance program entirely, especially since the Egyptian military relies heavily on U.S. military equipment,” the report said. “However, certain dynamics would likely come into play if a Brotherhood-dominated regime were to come to power in Egypt, namely that the U.S. Congress would be hard-pressed to continue funding military aid to Egypt if the Brotherhood were to take power.”