NYTIMES: HOUSEHOLD SURVEY CAN BE OFF BY 50%!
HERE'S WHY THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WENT DOW: IT'S BASED ON THE "HOUSEHOLD SURVEY" ; AP:
In September, the household survey showed that the number of people who said they were unemployed fell by 456,000. The number of people who said they were working increased even more — by 873,000.
Unlike the payroll survey, the household survey captures farm workers, the self-employed and people who work for new companies. It also does a better job of capturing hiring by small businesses.
But the household survey is more volatile from month to month. The Labor Department surveys just 60,000 households, a small fraction of the more than 100 million U.S. households.ACCORDING TO THE NYTIMES, THE MARGIN OF ERROR IS.... 400,000! YUP:
These numbers are always tremendously volatile, but the reasons are statistical, not political.
The volatility arises because the numbers are based on a tiny survey with a margin of error of 400,000.CLICK ON THE TITLE TO READ THE WHOLE THING AT ASTUTE BLOGGERS.
1 comment:
Smiles Told you yesterday :
"Rabbit Foot Obama?" - The Odd September Unemployment Rate: When Good Surveys Produce False Results.
The odds against two such anomalous reports back-to-back are not 100 to 1, but 10,000 to one, or about once in 800 years.Hmmmm.......Once in 800 years just before the elections.......Talk about 'Lucky Rabbit Foot'?
http://www.mfs-theothernews.com/2012/10/rabbit-foot-obama-odd-september.html
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