Xi, yesterday urged CALM on all parties on the Korean Peninsula.
A cheap way to look good, although I am sure they mean it. I am also sure they understand the effect of this call.
NOTHING.
From here, it looks as if the gears of this machine are well underway.
They test? BOOM. No way we can do nothing, now. If we do something EFFECTIVE, they unleash 100% war on the peninsula and may attack our bases in the western pacific, and in Japan.
But none of this has to be this way.
If China sees itself as a self confident growing power ( which is what I would see if I were in China), then the REAL GAIN, is to STRANGLE Kim and his buds and allow the South, a grade A economic powerhouse, to absorb the entire North right to the Yalu and then China has an economically FULL SIZE trading partner they can ship back and forth with across bridges, and begin to influence AWAY from a ‘distant, declining, self absorbed USA, whose time has come and is going.’ Australia, whose geographical position and observation of economies since the 80’s, and politics since the 2008 election, is a prime example of this. Australia openly discusses, spurred by academic papers, whether their future is with China and Asia or with English Speaking Democracies (it’s the latter, dudes, you’re kidding yourselves in a world class delusion, otherwise).
North Korea at MOST is at times nothing more than a convenient TACTICAL annoyance for the USA, and China must realize if it ever becomes more, the USA will ensure by all means, including use of the most decisive means available to humans, they end as sand and glass. So sorry, this really should be clear in Beijing.
Therefore by strangling off the Kim concentration camp with a 100% embargo, in concert with a 100% naval blockade by the USA, Australia and Japan, and causing EITHER the fall of Kim by slow death, or the aggressive strike by Kim firing the firing shot, and thereby ‘allowing’ the entry of China, Russia, the USA, and South Korea, China has by far the most to gain IN THE LONG GAME.
The worst case over the next 50-100 years is that economic, but not political benefits ensue as the entire economy of Asia is lifted.
I mean, China believes in ‘free trade’, right?
So they can benefit, RIGHT?
BTW, HERE.
3 comments:
Epa,
Do you think the invitation for Congress to come to the White House for a briefing is stagecraft? Was this about raising the anxiety factor? Fat Boy seems paranoid enough as it is. Was this meeting about forcing the hand so that we can respond? Or was it about making Kim step back?
Do you believe things are about to blow? (Sorry for the poor use of words here!)
You took the questions right out of my mouth, TLEP.
A 100% embargo on North Korea would require hundreds of checkpoints located in Chinese and Russian territory.
Its biggest trading partners.
They're not likely to let us man them.
We'd have to establish a northern DMZ along the Yalu river.
Then there's the tunnels and Submarines.
And I dont think Kim's regime really needs any foreign trade to survive.
Fear is produced domestically.
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